Match detail

Argentina vs Algeria

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Argentina

Algeria

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice2.00

Asian Handicap: Argentina -1.25

Probability

53%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 17, 2026, 1:40 AM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 17, 2026, 3:00 AM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 17, 2026, 5:12 AM GMT+2

Result

WIN

What shaped the view

Group opener: neither side is already qualified or in a must-protect Matchday 3 spot. Argentina still has incentive to build goal difference for group rank and third-place comparisons, but opening-game control can reduce early chaos.
Argentina’s XI has clear unit balance: Romero/Lisandro protection, Mac Allister-Enzo-De Paul control, and Messi/Lautaro/Almada between and behind the lines. Algeria’s 4-4-2 has defensive experience but no supplied substitutes, which weakens late response capacity against Argentina’s deep attacking bench.
Side market is preferred over totals because Argentina’s superiority is lineup-wide and substitution-driven. Home -1.25 at 2.00 pays for a 2+ goal win, while a 1-goal win is only a half loss; Away +1.25 is protected, but the missing Algeria bench makes late concession risk too high at 1.82.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Argentina’s starting structure and bench depth create the clearest edge. The midfield should sustain territory, Messi/Almada give central chance creation, Lautaro fixes the box, and Alvarez/González/Lo Celso-type bench options can keep pressure high if Algeria’s compact 4-4-2 holds early. Algeria have enough defensive names to make -1.25 a medium-risk line, but with no listed substitutes their late-game resistance is the main weakness.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Home -1.25 has quarter-line downside: an Argentina one-goal win returns a half loss, and an organized Algeria block could keep the margin tight if Argentina manage the opener conservatively.

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